Hurricane Season 2007 III
OK, maybe I was wrong...
Hurricane Dean is about to terrorize the Carribean.
WTNT34
KNHC 171751
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN
SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
AL042007 145 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007...
DEAN STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 125 MPH WINDS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE... DOMINICA... AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER SABA... ST. EUSTATIUS... MONTSERRAT... ANTIGUA... NEVIS... ST KITTS... BARBUDA... ST.MAARTEN... AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABOBEATA TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 145 PM AST 1745Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES (280 KM) WEST OF MARTINIQUE AND ABOUT 300 MILES (480 KM) SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH (35 KM)/HR AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. ON THIS TRACK DEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT DEAN HAS STRENGTHENED. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 125 MPH (205 KM)/HR WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
DEAN IS A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES (295 KM). BANDS OF HEAVY SQUALLS ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ARE APPROACHING PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. LATEST ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BY A RECONNAISSANCEAIR CRAFT WAS 961 MB... 28.38 INCHES.
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM DEAN OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. REPEATING THE 145 PM AST POSITION 14.8 N AND 63.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD WEST NEAR 22 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE - 961 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.
Maybe!
The storm we had has just passed over and the carpet is lit with a very strong sun! I wonder if it will beget a rainbow? Usually storms with immediate sun at this time of day, with the sun slanting just as it is, turn into rainbows. A lovely thought. Maybe an omen for tonight!
That is not what I was referring to above, admitting that I might be wrong, and it is not a staggering thought that I may be wrong - it happens with great regularity, it seems. No, but the storm that just passed overhead is just a testament to how unpredictable and unexplainable the weather can be.
Hurricane Dean is about to terrorize the Carribean.
WTNT34
KNHC 171751
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN
SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
AL042007 145 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007...
DEAN STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 125 MPH WINDS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE... DOMINICA... AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER SABA... ST. EUSTATIUS... MONTSERRAT... ANTIGUA... NEVIS... ST KITTS... BARBUDA... ST.MAARTEN... AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABOBEATA TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 145 PM AST 1745Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES (280 KM) WEST OF MARTINIQUE AND ABOUT 300 MILES (480 KM) SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH (35 KM)/HR AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. ON THIS TRACK DEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT DEAN HAS STRENGTHENED. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 125 MPH (205 KM)/HR WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
DEAN IS A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES (295 KM). BANDS OF HEAVY SQUALLS ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ARE APPROACHING PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. LATEST ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BY A RECONNAISSANCEAIR CRAFT WAS 961 MB... 28.38 INCHES.
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM DEAN OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. REPEATING THE 145 PM AST POSITION 14.8 N AND 63.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD WEST NEAR 22 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE - 961 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.
Alright, alright, I know I posted that I was not convinced about the hurricane season being busy. Maybe I am wrong. However, one hurricane does not a busy season make (even if it is a Category 3 - ouch). And I would be the first to champion NOAA if they are right. I want to see that they are really making strides in reading the various signs correctly to give overall predictions well. So I am not against them. I want to see this area of science leap forward.
Maybe!
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