An Update on Hurricane Dean

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN
ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
AL042007500 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DEAN EXPECTED TO STRIKE THE YUCATAN TONIGHT. COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE BEFORE LANDFALL.

AT 5 PM EDT (2100 UTC) THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN TO VERACRUZ. AT 5 PM EDT.

ALL WARNINGS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ARE DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF CUBA, PINAR DEL RIO, LA HABANA AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. AT 5PM EDT ALL OTHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN CUBA ARE DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF BELIZE, ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO CANCUN AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESSO SOUTHWARD TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTYSHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT (2100Z), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST OR ABOUT 270 MILES (435 KM) EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH (32 KM/HR) AND A WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH (240 KM/HR) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND DEAN IS LIKELY TO BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM) FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES (280 KM). THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 918 MB (27.11 INCHES).

DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, BELIZE, GUATEMALA AND NORTHERN HONDURAS WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES IS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION 18.2 N 84.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 918 MB.

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